Oil, Water, and Climate

An Introduction

Catherine Gautier

University of California, Santa Barbara

Paperback

(ISBN-13: 9780521709194)

• Also available in Hardback

Cambridge, Cambridge Universitry Press, May 2008, 392 pp.

£24.99

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Textbook

• Lecturers can request inspection copies of this title.

Contents

		Foreword xvii
		Introduction	1
1		Overview	4
		Oil, Water, Climate, and Population: An Interactive System of Immense Complexity	4
		Coupled Unsustainable Use of Energy and Water Resources	5
		Role of Population and Economic Development in Oil and Water Use	5
		Effects of Energy Demand and Use on Global Warming	6
		Climate Change Can Exacerbate Water Scarcity	7
		Oil and Water Resource Issues Share Many Features	7
		Exhaustion of Easily Accessible Resources	7
		Realization of Finiteness of Resources and New Strategies	8
		Value of Efficiency Improvement	8
		Oil and Water Security Concerns	9
		Poor Management of Oil and Water Resources	9
		Aging Infrastructure and Magnitude of the Needed Investments	10
		Urgency and Window of Opportunity	10
		Major Differences in Oil and Water Resources Issues	11
		Strong Leadership Needed	12
	2	Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Global Warming, and Water Resources	14
		Introduction	14
		Carbon Dioxide Emissions	15
		Increasing Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the Atmosphere due to Human Activities	16
		Earth’s CO2 Concentration and Temperature	19
		Understanding the Present by Looking at the Past	19
		Relationship between Past CO2 Concentration and Temperature	19
		Earth Temperature Observations: Global Warming	20
		Temperature: Observations and Proxy Data	20
		Understanding Earth’s Temperature Maintenance and Change	22
		Earth Radiation Budget and Temperature	22
		Increased Greenhouse Effect	24
		Feedbacks	24
		Earth’s Climate	26
		Role of the Ocean on Climate	26
		Deep Ocean Circulation and Climate	27
		Main Climate Effects of Global Warming	28
		Snow, Ice Extent, Oceanic Heat Content, and Sea Level	28
		Impact on Water Cycle, Precipitation, El Niño, and Winds	30
		Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions	31
		Future Climate: Climate Models	31
		Predicted Impacts on Water Resources	33
		Conclusion	35
	3	Population, Environmental Impacts, and Climate Change	36
		Introduction	36
		Current Population Projections and Characteristics of Future Population	37
		Factors Influencing Population Predictions	40
		Fertility	42
		Mortality	43
		Migration	44
		Tools for Analyzing Demographic Changes	44
		Demographic Transition Model	44
		Population Pyramid	45
		Uncertainty of Demographic Projections	45
		Geographic and Age Distribution of Population	46
		Population Concentration in Urban Areas	46
		Population Concentration in Coastal Regions	47
		An Aging Population	50
		Development, Global Energy Use, and Demography	51
		Population, Water, and Climate Change	51
		Population Growth, Resources Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change	52
		Per Capita Emissions Trends	53
		Other Human Impacts on the Global Carbon Balance and Greenhouse Gases	55
		Integrating Population Considerations into Climate Change Solutions	56
		Population and Emissions Limitation Agreements	56
		“Climate Refugees”	56
		Conclusion	57
	4	Carbon Cycle and the Human Impact	59
		Introduction	59
		Carbon and the Carbon Cycle	60
		Carbon Exchanges Affecting Atmospheric CO2 Concentration	65
		Exchange between Rocks and the Atmosphere	65
		Biotic Fluxes: Photosynthesis and Respiration	66
		Phytoplankton Photosynthesis	67
		Net Carbon Uptake: Carbon Sinks	70
		Land as a Carbon Sink	70
		The Ocean as a Carbon Sink	72
		Partitioning Carbon Sinks between Land and Ocean	73
		Examples of Natural and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Carbon Cycle	74
		Land-Use Change: Deforestation and Agricultural Practices	74
		CO2 Fertilization and Nutrient Deposition	75
		Fires	77
		Fossil Fuel Burning and the Carbon Cycle	78
		Coupling between the Carbon Cycle and Climate: Carbon-Climate Feedback	78
		Conclusion	79
	5	Peak Oil, Energy, Water, and Climate	81
		Introduction	81
		The Concept of Peak Oil	82
		Conventional and Unconventional Oil	84
		Reserves	85
		Why Production and Reserve Estimates Differ	87
		Consumption	88
		Estimating Peak Oil	90
		Oil Production, Distribution, and Use	93
		Energy Consumption Needed for Oil Production	93
		Water Used in Oil Production	94
		Oil Production and Greenhouse Gas Emissions	94
		Oil Transport and Water Pollution	95
		Potential Consequences of Peak Oil	95
		Peak Oil and Energy Policy Choices	95
		Peak Oil and Market Economies	96
		Peak Oil and Climate	97
		Conclusion	99
	6	Oil Consumption and CO2 Emissions from Transportation	100
		Introduction	100
		Present and Future Global Oil Consumption	101
		Oil Consumption by the Transportation Sector	103
		CO2 Emissions by the Transportation Sector	104
		Gasoline Consumption Standards	105
		Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices	109
		Private Car Ownership Trends	111
		Distillates and Oil Use by Other Transportation Vehicles	113
		Reducing CO2 Emissions from Transportation	114
		Government Regulatory Actions	114
		Raising Fuel Economy Standards	114
		Establishing Environmental Regulations	115
		Increasing Fuel Taxes	116
		Establishing Tradable Fuel Economy Credits	116
		Offering Technology Incentives	117
		Reducing Traffic Congestion and Average Annual Mileage Driven	117
		Developing Rapid and Carbon-Light Mass Transit Systems	118
		The Case of Air Transportation	118
		Marine Transportation	119
		CO2 Impacts and Related Emissions Costs	120
		The Role of the Public: Influence of Personal Behavior	120
		Conclusion	121
	7	Oil, Economy, Power, and Conflicts	123
		Introduction	123
		Oil Consumption, Economics, and Politics	123
		The Geopolitics of Oil	127
		Oil Prices and Financial Markets	127
		Petroleum-Rich Economies	130
		Oil Security	133
		China’s Geopolitical Outlook Regarding Oil	134
		Impact of Climate on Oil Production and Price	135
		Conclusion	137
	8	Energy Alternatives and Their Connection to Water and Climate	138
		Introduction	138
		Coal	140
		Natural Gas	143
		Nuclear Energy	147
		Wind Energy	151
		Solar Energy	154
		Hydrogen Cells	155
		Hydroelectric Power	159
		Biomass: Ethanol	160
		Geothermal Energy	162
		Conclusion	164
	9	The Water Cycle and Global Warming	168
		Introduction	168
		Water Cycle and the Water Budget	169
		Elements of the Water Cycle	170
		Evaporation, Condensation, and Precipitation	170
		Land Surface Hydrology	175
		Snow and Ice	177
		Water Cycle and Climate	177
		Water Vapor Greenhouse Effect	177
		Clouds and Climate	177
		Precipitation and Climate	178
		Evapotranspiration and Climate	180
		Snow/Ice and Climate	180
		Weathering Effect of Water and Climate	181
		Predicted Changes in the Water Cycle	181
		Predictive Abilities of Climate Models	181
		Changes in Water Vapor and Clouds	182
		Precipitation	183
		Evaporation	183
		Changes in the Land Water Budget	185
		Other Effects of Human Activities on the Water Cycle	186
		Conclusion	186
	10	Fresh Water Availability, Sanitation Deficit, and Water Usage: Connection to Energy and Global Warming	187
		Introduction	187
		Global Distribution of Fresh Water Availability	189
		Sanitation Deficit	189
		The Water-Sanitation Gap	189
		Lack of Sanitation: Poverty Link	191
		The Future of Sanitation	191
		Cities and Water	192
		Water Usage: Global Inequality and Irrigation Needs	194
		Global Inequality	194
		Irrigation Needs	194
		Future of Irrigation: Where Will the Water Come From?	196
		Ecosystem Needs	198
		Blue and Green Water	199
		Overview and Definition	199
		Water Returning to the Atmosphere, Green Water Needs, and Blue Water Waste	199
		Energy and Water Connection	200
		Energy Needs for Irrigation and Crops Water Delivery	200
		Energy for Water Supply, Sanitation, and Wastewater Treatment	201
		Water for Energy Generation	201
		Water Availability and Global Warming	202
		Overall Trends	202
		Managing Water in a Changing Climate	202
		Water Needs of Alternative Energy Sources	203
		Conclusion	204
	11	Rivers, Lakes, Aquifers, and Dams: Relation to Energy and Climate	205
		Introduction	205
		Surface Water	205
		Rivers and Streams	206
		Lakes	208
		Wetlands	209
		Groundwater	210
		Fresh Water Ecosystem	211
		Ecosystem Functions	211
		Human Pressures on Ecosystems	212
		Dams	213
		Major Functions of Dams	213
		Environmental Effects of Dams	214
		Dam Silting	216
		Dams and Greenhouse Gas Emissions	217
		Social Impacts	218
		Potential Effects of Global Warming on Dams, Rivers, and Lakes	218
		Conclusion	221
	12	Water Contamination, Energy, and Climate	222
		Introduction	222
		Water Pollution and Water Quality	223
		Water Contaminants	223
		Sources of Water Contamination	226
		Agriculture	226
		Fertilizer Contamination	226
		Irrigation-Induced Salinization and Waterlogging	229
		Livestock Pollution	229
		Accumulation of Agriculture Contaminants in Enclosed Basins	230
		Industrial Contamination	230
		Domestic Household Contamination	231
		Deposition from the Atmosphere	231
		Groundwater Contamination	232
		Infiltration Contamination	232
		Saltwater Intrusion	235
		Urban Water Contamination and Water Cycle Modification	235
		Water Resources Management and Waste Treatment	237
		Water Resources Management	237
		Wastewater Treatment	238
		Effects of Water Pollution on Health	241
		Changes in Precipitation Patterns and Water Contamination	242
		Conclusion	243
	13	Geopolitics of Water and the International Situation	245
		Introduction	245
		Water Rights and Water Regimes	246
		Definition of Water Rights	246
		Water Rights and Security	248
		Water Regimes	248
		Transboundary Waters	248
		Hydrological Interdependence	248
		Transboundary Water Governance Challenges	249
		International Water Rights	250
		Water Allocation	250
		International Water Laws	251
		Delimitation of International Boundaries	252
		Roots and Types of Water Conflicts	252
		Potential for Cooperation around Water Resources	253
		Water and Poverty	255
		Two-Way Relationship	255
		Public Finance, Access, and Price	255
		Conditions for Empowerment	257
		Women and Water	257
		Development and Environmental Protection: Water in the Middle	258
		UN Millennium Development Goals, Millennium Project and Water, and Others	258
		The World Bank and Water	259
		Nongovernmental Organizations	259
		World Water Forum	259
		Opposition to Large-Scale Water Initiatives	260
		Opposition to Huge Dams	260
		Privatization of Water and Water Systems	261
		Water Value, Price, and Cost	263
		Integrated Water Resource Management	265
		Water Security and Water as a Human Right	265
		Water Security	265
		Water as a Human Right	266
		Water Rights and Climate Change	267
		Conclusion	268
	14	Water Alternatives	270
		Introduction	270
		Water Saving	271
		Water Conservation and Efficiency	271
		Water Distribution Infrastructure Maintenance, Repair, and Replacement	272
		Water Productivity Increase: “More Crop per Drop”	273
		Raising Irrigation Water Efficiency and Productivity	273
		Rainwater Harvesting	274
		Water Diversions and Transfer among Basins	276
		Technological Solutions	276
		Water Trading and the Concept of Virtual Water	277
		Water Trading	277
		Virtual Water	280
		Land-Use Change for Increased Rainfed Agriculture	281
		Desalination	282
		Desalination Process and Technology	282
		Desalinated Water Production	283
		Energy Needs of Desalination	283
		Cost of Desalinated Water	284
		Environmental Impacts and Health Risks	284
		Conclusion	286
	15	Global Climate Change: Observations, Modeling, and Predictions	288
		Introduction	288
		Present Observational Evidence of Climate Change	289
		Global Temperature Changes	289
		Change in Temperature Extremes	290
		Stratospheric Cooling	290
		Polar Amplification of Anthropogenic Warming	290
		Changes in Hurricanes and Oceans	291
		Hurricanes	291
		Storage of Heat in the Oceans	292
		Ocean Salinity and Density in a Warmer Climate	293
		Changes in Sea Level	293
		Forcings, Radiative Forcing, and Climate Sensitivity	294
		Forcings	294
		Radiative Forcing	296
		Climate Sensitivity	296
		Future Climate Change	298
		Tools	298
		Predicted Changes under Various Scenarios	300
		Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Effects	302
		Climate Oscillations	303
		Monsoons	306
		Climate Inertia and Abrupt Climate Change	307
		Climate Inertia	307
		Abrupt Climate Change	307
		Conclusion	308
	16	Energy and Water Challenges and Solutions in a Changing Climate Framework: Commonality, Differences, and Connections	310
		Introduction	310
		Time Frame for Action	312
		Population	312
		Energy	313
		Water	313
		Climate	314
		The Scope of the Challenge	314
		Energy and Climate	314
		Water	316
		Electricity Production	317
		Clean Coal	317
		Natural Gas	317
		Solar and Wind Power	318
		Nuclear Power	318
		Improved Water Management	318
		Resource and Demand Management	319
		Addressing Urbanization Issues	319
		Water Treatment and Reuse	320
		Development of Indicators of Global Water Trends	320
		Common Characteristics of Solutions	320
		Efficiency and Conservation	320
		Energy Savings in the Building Sector	321
		Transport Sector Energy Savings	321
		Irrigation Water Savings	321
		Urban Water Savings	322
		Adaptation to Change	322
		Technology Breakthroughs and Research and Development (R&D) Programs	323
		Addressing Externalities	324
		Assigning a Cost to Emitting CO2	324
		Assigning a Cost to Water	324
		Respect for the Environment	325
		Reasonable Use of Resources	325
		Environmental Ethics	325
		Sustainability	326
		Addressing Needs of Future Generations	327
		Intergenerational Equity	327
		Climate Discounting across Generation versus the Precautionary Principle	328
		Empowerment and Education in Support of Poverty Eradication	329
		Education and Adaptability to Change	330
		The Security Issue	330
		Conflict versus Cooperation	331
		Massive Infrastructure and Research and Development Investments Needed	331
		Leadership and Behavior Changes	331
		Final Thoughts	335
		References	337
		Index	345

Malaysian woman can leave Islam

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7389874.stm

A religious court in Malaysia has allowed a Muslim convert to leave the Islamic faith, in what is being hailed as a landmark ruling.

Penang’s Sharia court ruled that Siti Fatimah Tan Abdullah was free to return to Buddhism, following the collapse of her marriage to a Muslim man.

It was decided she had not had proper counselling during her conversion.

Malaysians are rarely allowed to renounce the faith - those who do can be prosecuted under stringent laws.

Religious rights are a sensitive issue in Malaysia - which is 60% Muslim.

The country has large Hindu, Christian and Buddhist communities - mainly drawn from the ethnic Indian and Chinese minorities.

Liberal interpretation

Malaysia insists a non-Muslim marrying a Muslim must take their faith. Ms Siti, an ethnic Chinese, converted when she married an Iranian Muslim man.

When their marriage collapsed, she filed a case with the Penang court asking to be allowed to revert to being a Buddhist.

The judge found in her favour, saying it was clear she had never practised Islam after her conversion and continued to pray as a Buddhist.

“The court has no choice but to declare that Siti Fatimah Tan Abdullah is no longer a Muslim as she has never practised the teachings of Islam,” said Judge Othman Ibrahim.

He instead blamed the state Islamic council for not fulfilling its responsibility of counselling and guiding new converts.

Analysts say the judge used a very liberal interpretation of the law because in many countries converts are treated just like those who are born into Islam - and are prohibited from changing their faith.

Islamic affairs are governed at a state level so this decision may not form a precedent for other parts of Malaysia.

The local religious council in Penang may also appeal against the ruling.

Mother’s porn law campaign ends

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/berkshire/7389476.stm

Graham Coutts strangled Jane Longhurst with a pair of tights

A mother whose daughter was murdered by a man addicted to violent internet porn has completed her fight to have such images banned.

Jane Longhurst, 31, was strangled by Graham Coutts, 39, from Hove, Sussex. He was jailed for at least 26 years.

Her mother Liz, from Berkshire, backed by Reading West MP Martin Salter, campaigned for three years to ban violent online porn.

The ban is part of the Criminal Justice and Immigration Bill.

Possession of sexually violent images will now be punishable by up to three years in jail.

The bill had its final reading on Thursday where it received Royal Assent.

Sometimes the freedoms of like-minded, decent people have to be curtailed because of a few others Liz Longhurst

Under the new rules, criminal responsibility shifts from the producer - who is responsible under the 1959 Obscene Publications Act (OPA) - to the consumer. Campaigners fear the new law risks criminalising thousands of people who use violent pornographic images as part of consensual sexual relationships.

Mrs Longhurst, of Reading, said she was aware that libertarians saw her as “a horrible killjoy”.

“Sometimes the freedoms of like-minded, decent people have to be curtailed because of a few others.

“I know some would argue women choose to do this. But I believe a lot of women who have been trafficked are forced to be on these sites.”

Not a ‘moral crusade’

Mrs Longhurst believes if the sites had not been available for Coutts to look at, her daughter would still be alive.

“It made it seem all right. I think he knew from quite a young age that it wasn’t really all right.

“But I think he thought: ‘Well, there are all these sites, I’m not the only one and it must be all right really’ and so he just went with the flow.”

Mr Salter said the campaign was not a “moral crusade” but targeted the “violent end of the market - material that was already illegal but with the advent of the internet was unregulated”.

“This is the combination of a three-year campaign waged by Liz Longhurst and myself, which garnered the support of church groups, women’s organisations, 189 MPs, and generated 50,000 signatures on a national petition,” he said.

Liz Longhurst: Fought three-year campaign

Under the new law, pornographic material which depicts necrophilia, bestiality or violence which is life threatening or likely to result in serious injury to the anus, breasts or genitals is outlawed.

The Ministry of Justice said the offence would be enforced by individual police forces, by officers who were “already working on protecting the public in this field”.

A spokesman said it expected the number of prosecutions would be relatively small.

He said: “The new law is not intended to target those who accidentally come into contact with obscene pornography, nor would it target the mainstream entertainment industry, which works within current obscenity laws, or those who sell bondage material legally available in the UK.

“The material to be covered by the ban is already illegal to publish and distribute in the UK under the Obscene Publications Act (OPA) 1959 but can be accessed in the UK from abroad via the internet.

“Legislating in this area will ensure that the possession of such material is illegal both on and off line.”