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Foreword xvii |
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Introduction |
1 |
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Overview |
4 |
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Oil, Water, Climate, and Population: An Interactive System of Immense Complexity |
4 |
| |
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Coupled Unsustainable Use of Energy and Water Resources |
5 |
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Role of Population and Economic Development in Oil and Water Use |
5 |
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Effects of Energy Demand and Use on Global Warming |
6 |
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Climate Change Can Exacerbate Water Scarcity |
7 |
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Oil and Water Resource Issues Share Many Features |
7 |
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Exhaustion of Easily Accessible Resources |
7 |
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Realization of Finiteness of Resources and New Strategies |
8 |
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Value of Efficiency Improvement |
8 |
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Oil and Water Security Concerns |
9 |
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Poor Management of Oil and Water Resources |
9 |
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Aging Infrastructure and Magnitude of the Needed Investments |
10 |
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Urgency and Window of Opportunity |
10 |
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Major Differences in Oil and Water Resources Issues |
11 |
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Strong Leadership Needed |
12 |
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2 |
Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Global Warming, and Water Resources |
14 |
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Introduction |
14 |
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Carbon Dioxide Emissions |
15 |
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Increasing Carbon Dioxide Concentration in the Atmosphere due to Human Activities |
16 |
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Earth’s CO2 Concentration and Temperature |
19 |
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Understanding the Present by Looking at the Past |
19 |
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Relationship between Past CO2 Concentration and Temperature |
19 |
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Earth Temperature Observations: Global Warming |
20 |
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Temperature: Observations and Proxy Data |
20 |
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Understanding Earth’s Temperature Maintenance and Change |
22 |
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Earth Radiation Budget and Temperature |
22 |
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Increased Greenhouse Effect |
24 |
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Feedbacks |
24 |
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Earth’s Climate |
26 |
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Role of the Ocean on Climate |
26 |
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Deep Ocean Circulation and Climate |
27 |
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Main Climate Effects of Global Warming |
28 |
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Snow, Ice Extent, Oceanic Heat Content, and Sea Level |
28 |
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Impact on Water Cycle, Precipitation, El Niño, and Winds |
30 |
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Future Carbon Dioxide Emissions |
31 |
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Future Climate: Climate Models |
31 |
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Predicted Impacts on Water Resources |
33 |
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Conclusion |
35 |
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3 |
Population, Environmental Impacts, and Climate Change |
36 |
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Introduction |
36 |
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Current Population Projections and Characteristics of Future Population |
37 |
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Factors Influencing Population Predictions |
40 |
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Fertility |
42 |
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Mortality |
43 |
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Migration |
44 |
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Tools for Analyzing Demographic Changes |
44 |
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Demographic Transition Model |
44 |
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Population Pyramid |
45 |
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Uncertainty of Demographic Projections |
45 |
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Geographic and Age Distribution of Population |
46 |
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Population Concentration in Urban Areas |
46 |
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Population Concentration in Coastal Regions |
47 |
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An Aging Population |
50 |
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Development, Global Energy Use, and Demography |
51 |
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Population, Water, and Climate Change |
51 |
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Population Growth, Resources Use, and Vulnerability to Climate Change |
52 |
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Per Capita Emissions Trends |
53 |
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Other Human Impacts on the Global Carbon Balance and Greenhouse Gases |
55 |
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Integrating Population Considerations into Climate Change Solutions |
56 |
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Population and Emissions Limitation Agreements |
56 |
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“Climate Refugees” |
56 |
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Conclusion |
57 |
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4 |
Carbon Cycle and the Human Impact |
59 |
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Introduction |
59 |
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Carbon and the Carbon Cycle |
60 |
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Carbon Exchanges Affecting Atmospheric CO2 Concentration |
65 |
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Exchange between Rocks and the Atmosphere |
65 |
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Biotic Fluxes: Photosynthesis and Respiration |
66 |
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Phytoplankton Photosynthesis |
67 |
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Net Carbon Uptake: Carbon Sinks |
70 |
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Land as a Carbon Sink |
70 |
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The Ocean as a Carbon Sink |
72 |
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Partitioning Carbon Sinks between Land and Ocean |
73 |
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Examples of Natural and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Carbon Cycle |
74 |
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Land-Use Change: Deforestation and Agricultural Practices |
74 |
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CO2 Fertilization and Nutrient Deposition |
75 |
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Fires |
77 |
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Fossil Fuel Burning and the Carbon Cycle |
78 |
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Coupling between the Carbon Cycle and Climate: Carbon-Climate Feedback |
78 |
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Conclusion |
79 |
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5 |
Peak Oil, Energy, Water, and Climate |
81 |
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Introduction |
81 |
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The Concept of Peak Oil |
82 |
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Conventional and Unconventional Oil |
84 |
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Reserves |
85 |
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Why Production and Reserve Estimates Differ |
87 |
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Consumption |
88 |
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Estimating Peak Oil |
90 |
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Oil Production, Distribution, and Use |
93 |
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Energy Consumption Needed for Oil Production |
93 |
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Water Used in Oil Production |
94 |
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Oil Production and Greenhouse Gas Emissions |
94 |
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Oil Transport and Water Pollution |
95 |
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Potential Consequences of Peak Oil |
95 |
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Peak Oil and Energy Policy Choices |
95 |
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Peak Oil and Market Economies |
96 |
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Peak Oil and Climate |
97 |
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Conclusion |
99 |
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6 |
Oil Consumption and CO2 Emissions from Transportation |
100 |
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Introduction |
100 |
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Present and Future Global Oil Consumption |
101 |
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Oil Consumption by the Transportation Sector |
103 |
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CO2 Emissions by the Transportation Sector |
104 |
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Gasoline Consumption Standards |
105 |
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Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices |
109 |
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Private Car Ownership Trends |
111 |
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Distillates and Oil Use by Other Transportation Vehicles |
113 |
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Reducing CO2 Emissions from Transportation |
114 |
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Government Regulatory Actions |
114 |
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Raising Fuel Economy Standards |
114 |
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Establishing Environmental Regulations |
115 |
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Increasing Fuel Taxes |
116 |
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Establishing Tradable Fuel Economy Credits |
116 |
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Offering Technology Incentives |
117 |
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Reducing Traffic Congestion and Average Annual Mileage Driven |
117 |
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Developing Rapid and Carbon-Light Mass Transit Systems |
118 |
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The Case of Air Transportation |
118 |
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Marine Transportation |
119 |
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CO2 Impacts and Related Emissions Costs |
120 |
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The Role of the Public: Influence of Personal Behavior |
120 |
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Conclusion |
121 |
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7 |
Oil, Economy, Power, and Conflicts |
123 |
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Introduction |
123 |
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Oil Consumption, Economics, and Politics |
123 |
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The Geopolitics of Oil |
127 |
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Oil Prices and Financial Markets |
127 |
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Petroleum-Rich Economies |
130 |
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Oil Security |
133 |
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China’s Geopolitical Outlook Regarding Oil |
134 |
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Impact of Climate on Oil Production and Price |
135 |
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Conclusion |
137 |
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8 |
Energy Alternatives and Their Connection to Water and Climate |
138 |
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Introduction |
138 |
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Coal |
140 |
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Natural Gas |
143 |
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Nuclear Energy |
147 |
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Wind Energy |
151 |
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Solar Energy |
154 |
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Hydrogen Cells |
155 |
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Hydroelectric Power |
159 |
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Biomass: Ethanol |
160 |
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Geothermal Energy |
162 |
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Conclusion |
164 |
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9 |
The Water Cycle and Global Warming |
168 |
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Introduction |
168 |
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Water Cycle and the Water Budget |
169 |
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Elements of the Water Cycle |
170 |
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Evaporation, Condensation, and Precipitation |
170 |
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Land Surface Hydrology |
175 |
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Snow and Ice |
177 |
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Water Cycle and Climate |
177 |
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Water Vapor Greenhouse Effect |
177 |
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Clouds and Climate |
177 |
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Precipitation and Climate |
178 |
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Evapotranspiration and Climate |
180 |
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Snow/Ice and Climate |
180 |
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Weathering Effect of Water and Climate |
181 |
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Predicted Changes in the Water Cycle |
181 |
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Predictive Abilities of Climate Models |
181 |
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Changes in Water Vapor and Clouds |
182 |
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Precipitation |
183 |
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Evaporation |
183 |
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Changes in the Land Water Budget |
185 |
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Other Effects of Human Activities on the Water Cycle |
186 |
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Conclusion |
186 |
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10 |
Fresh Water Availability, Sanitation Deficit, and Water Usage: Connection to Energy and Global Warming |
187 |
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Introduction |
187 |
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Global Distribution of Fresh Water Availability |
189 |
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Sanitation Deficit |
189 |
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The Water-Sanitation Gap |
189 |
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Lack of Sanitation: Poverty Link |
191 |
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The Future of Sanitation |
191 |
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Cities and Water |
192 |
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Water Usage: Global Inequality and Irrigation Needs |
194 |
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Global Inequality |
194 |
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Irrigation Needs |
194 |
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Future of Irrigation: Where Will the Water Come From? |
196 |
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Ecosystem Needs |
198 |
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Blue and Green Water |
199 |
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Overview and Definition |
199 |
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Water Returning to the Atmosphere, Green Water Needs, and Blue Water Waste |
199 |
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Energy and Water Connection |
200 |
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Energy Needs for Irrigation and Crops Water Delivery |
200 |
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Energy for Water Supply, Sanitation, and Wastewater Treatment |
201 |
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Water for Energy Generation |
201 |
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Water Availability and Global Warming |
202 |
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Overall Trends |
202 |
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Managing Water in a Changing Climate |
202 |
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Water Needs of Alternative Energy Sources |
203 |
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Conclusion |
204 |
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11 |
Rivers, Lakes, Aquifers, and Dams: Relation to Energy and Climate |
205 |
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Introduction |
205 |
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Surface Water |
205 |
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Rivers and Streams |
206 |
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Lakes |
208 |
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Wetlands |
209 |
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Groundwater |
210 |
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Fresh Water Ecosystem |
211 |
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Ecosystem Functions |
211 |
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Human Pressures on Ecosystems |
212 |
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Dams |
213 |
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Major Functions of Dams |
213 |
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Environmental Effects of Dams |
214 |
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Dam Silting |
216 |
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Dams and Greenhouse Gas Emissions |
217 |
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Social Impacts |
218 |
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Potential Effects of Global Warming on Dams, Rivers, and Lakes |
218 |
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Conclusion |
221 |
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12 |
Water Contamination, Energy, and Climate |
222 |
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Introduction |
222 |
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Water Pollution and Water Quality |
223 |
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Water Contaminants |
223 |
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Sources of Water Contamination |
226 |
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Agriculture |
226 |
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Fertilizer Contamination |
226 |
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Irrigation-Induced Salinization and Waterlogging |
229 |
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Livestock Pollution |
229 |
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Accumulation of Agriculture Contaminants in Enclosed Basins |
230 |
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Industrial Contamination |
230 |
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Domestic Household Contamination |
231 |
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Deposition from the Atmosphere |
231 |
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Groundwater Contamination |
232 |
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Infiltration Contamination |
232 |
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Saltwater Intrusion |
235 |
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Urban Water Contamination and Water Cycle Modification |
235 |
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Water Resources Management and Waste Treatment |
237 |
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Water Resources Management |
237 |
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Wastewater Treatment |
238 |
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Effects of Water Pollution on Health |
241 |
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Changes in Precipitation Patterns and Water Contamination |
242 |
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Conclusion |
243 |
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13 |
Geopolitics of Water and the International Situation |
245 |
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Introduction |
245 |
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Water Rights and Water Regimes |
246 |
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Definition of Water Rights |
246 |
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Water Rights and Security |
248 |
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Water Regimes |
248 |
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Transboundary Waters |
248 |
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Hydrological Interdependence |
248 |
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Transboundary Water Governance Challenges |
249 |
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International Water Rights |
250 |
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Water Allocation |
250 |
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International Water Laws |
251 |
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Delimitation of International Boundaries |
252 |
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Roots and Types of Water Conflicts |
252 |
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Potential for Cooperation around Water Resources |
253 |
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Water and Poverty |
255 |
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Two-Way Relationship |
255 |
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Public Finance, Access, and Price |
255 |
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Conditions for Empowerment |
257 |
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Women and Water |
257 |
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Development and Environmental Protection: Water in the Middle |
258 |
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UN Millennium Development Goals, Millennium Project and Water, and Others |
258 |
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The World Bank and Water |
259 |
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Nongovernmental Organizations |
259 |
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World Water Forum |
259 |
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Opposition to Large-Scale Water Initiatives |
260 |
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Opposition to Huge Dams |
260 |
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Privatization of Water and Water Systems |
261 |
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Water Value, Price, and Cost |
263 |
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Integrated Water Resource Management |
265 |
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Water Security and Water as a Human Right |
265 |
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Water Security |
265 |
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Water as a Human Right |
266 |
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Water Rights and Climate Change |
267 |
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Conclusion |
268 |
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14 |
Water Alternatives |
270 |
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Introduction |
270 |
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Water Saving |
271 |
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Water Conservation and Efficiency |
271 |
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Water Distribution Infrastructure Maintenance, Repair, and Replacement |
272 |
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Water Productivity Increase: “More Crop per Drop” |
273 |
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Raising Irrigation Water Efficiency and Productivity |
273 |
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Rainwater Harvesting |
274 |
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Water Diversions and Transfer among Basins |
276 |
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Technological Solutions |
276 |
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Water Trading and the Concept of Virtual Water |
277 |
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Water Trading |
277 |
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Virtual Water |
280 |
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Land-Use Change for Increased Rainfed Agriculture |
281 |
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Desalination |
282 |
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Desalination Process and Technology |
282 |
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Desalinated Water Production |
283 |
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Energy Needs of Desalination |
283 |
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Cost of Desalinated Water |
284 |
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Environmental Impacts and Health Risks |
284 |
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Conclusion |
286 |
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15 |
Global Climate Change: Observations, Modeling, and Predictions |
288 |
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Introduction |
288 |
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Present Observational Evidence of Climate Change |
289 |
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Global Temperature Changes |
289 |
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Change in Temperature Extremes |
290 |
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Stratospheric Cooling |
290 |
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Polar Amplification of Anthropogenic Warming |
290 |
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Changes in Hurricanes and Oceans |
291 |
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Hurricanes |
291 |
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Storage of Heat in the Oceans |
292 |
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Ocean Salinity and Density in a Warmer Climate |
293 |
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Changes in Sea Level |
293 |
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Forcings, Radiative Forcing, and Climate Sensitivity |
294 |
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Forcings |
294 |
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Radiative Forcing |
296 |
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Climate Sensitivity |
296 |
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Future Climate Change |
298 |
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Tools |
298 |
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Predicted Changes under Various Scenarios |
300 |
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Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Effects |
302 |
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Climate Oscillations |
303 |
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Monsoons |
306 |
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Climate Inertia and Abrupt Climate Change |
307 |
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Climate Inertia |
307 |
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Abrupt Climate Change |
307 |
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Conclusion |
308 |
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16 |
Energy and Water Challenges and Solutions in a Changing Climate Framework: Commonality, Differences, and Connections |
310 |
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Introduction |
310 |
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Time Frame for Action |
312 |
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Population |
312 |
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Energy |
313 |
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Water |
313 |
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Climate |
314 |
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The Scope of the Challenge |
314 |
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Energy and Climate |
314 |
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Water |
316 |
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Electricity Production |
317 |
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Clean Coal |
317 |
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Natural Gas |
317 |
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Solar and Wind Power |
318 |
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Nuclear Power |
318 |
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Improved Water Management |
318 |
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Resource and Demand Management |
319 |
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Addressing Urbanization Issues |
319 |
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Water Treatment and Reuse |
320 |
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Development of Indicators of Global Water Trends |
320 |
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Common Characteristics of Solutions |
320 |
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Efficiency and Conservation |
320 |
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Energy Savings in the Building Sector |
321 |
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Transport Sector Energy Savings |
321 |
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Irrigation Water Savings |
321 |
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Urban Water Savings |
322 |
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Adaptation to Change |
322 |
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Technology Breakthroughs and Research and Development (R&D) Programs |
323 |
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Addressing Externalities |
324 |
| |
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Assigning a Cost to Emitting CO2 |
324 |
| |
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Assigning a Cost to Water |
324 |
| |
|
Respect for the Environment |
325 |
| |
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Reasonable Use of Resources |
325 |
| |
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Environmental Ethics |
325 |
| |
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Sustainability |
326 |
| |
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Addressing Needs of Future Generations |
327 |
| |
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Intergenerational Equity |
327 |
| |
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Climate Discounting across Generation versus the Precautionary Principle |
328 |
| |
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Empowerment and Education in Support of Poverty Eradication |
329 |
| |
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Education and Adaptability to Change |
330 |
| |
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The Security Issue |
330 |
| |
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Conflict versus Cooperation |
331 |
| |
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Massive Infrastructure and Research and Development Investments Needed |
331 |
| |
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Leadership and Behavior Changes |
331 |
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Final Thoughts |
335 |
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References |
337 |
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Index |
345 |